Can Project Natal wii-ly beat Nintendo at its own game?

In the wake of E3 the press has been trumpeting the game-changing (sorry) properties Microsoft’s Project Natal brings to the games industry. It promises to open up gaming to new audiences, including some of whom who may previously have been excluded, such as the elderly or physically disabled. All great outcomes, however there remains the niggling doubt that, despite its massive resources, Microsoft may not be the best company to bring this ground breaking technology to the mass market.



Fairly or otherwise there are some that claim that MS has a record of overpromising, Windows Vista of course springs to mind, and that Natal is quite simply too good to be true. So far, Microsoft has offered no release date and appears to have no significant competition. From this perspective there’s no impetus, other than the commercial concerns, to rush to market so there’s ample time to fine tune Natal and get it right first time. However, one potential fly in the ointment is the Xbox brand itself.

Nintendo has largely sewn up the casual market with the Wii and the DS, Sony’s Playstation 3 remains a sought after premium lifestyle product, and was recently voted the UK’s most desirable brand by teens in the Global Habbo Youth Survey Brand Update 2009. On the other hand the Xbox 360 was rushed to market and suffered for it, Microsoft sought to own the home entertainment space before its rivals got to market, it was a loss leader from the outset and aggressive price cutting and the damaging red ring of death debacle have ensured that the Xbox brand has only broken even in 2008, seven years after its 2001 launch! From a technology perspective the Xbox 360 is less future-proofed than the PS3 for its mooted ten year lifespan. It has been unable to compete in the UK as a media hub, offers no web browser or wireless connectivity out of the box. Tie-ups with Sky, Zune and various social networking sites may go some way to remedying critcisms as of Q4 ’09 but it’s the Natal project that could offer Microsoft the longevity to make Xbox a hugely profitable brand.

However, positioned as the console of choice for the hardcore hobbyist Xbox sits between two lucrative mainstream audiences. The titles offered on Xbox Arcade are not enough to bring in casual gamers in sufficient numbers to make the console a serious competitor to the Nintendo Wii. Despite the movies on demand service offered by the Xbox the failure of Microsoft’s HD-DVD gamble means the console is unlikely to become the natural choice for the home cinema fan due to its lack of a Blu-ray drive.

Of course by ushering a brand new interface Microsoft hopes to change its perception in the market extending the life cycle of its ageing console. It’s an audacious move and one that will undoubtedly pay dividends if project Natal lives up to its very clear promise, however will this be as successful under the Xbox brand as it would be under release by one of Micosoft’s competitors.

From the outset Microsoft marketed the Xbox as a powerful machine catering for serious gamers, its bulky looks, focus on aggressive genres and the often forbidding online environment of Xbox Live ensured it would find it difficult to breakout of its masculine ghetto. On a personal note I’ve largely given up on my forays into XBL since I become convinced that it’s almost entirely inhabited by emotionally stunted Morlocks... Rather like the set-up of Wells’ great novel it’s best not to venture onto Live after dark, you just need to replace his subterranean sub-humans with over stimulated American teens.

Despite efforts to soften this image through party games and its Mii-like avatars it’s possibly too little too late and women and families are unlikely to embrace the Xbox with open arms. Before the current generation of consoles the typical gamer was male in his late twenties to mid thirties and grew up playing video games, however Nintendo and now Apple are challenging this stereotype. However, ask yourself as a parent would you rather your family spend time in the bright, blocky and (largely) off-line environs of the Nintendo Wii, or that of the technically superior and online-enabled world of the Xbox 360? On paper Xbox would seem preferable once you get beyond the Nintendo’s current interface advantage. However, in real world terms would you prefer your child spend time in Disneyland or at the biker’s bar on the way (disclaimer: I once worked in a pub on the biker’s circuit on the South Coast and it was absolutely fine -at least compared to the rest of Hastings...)

So Project Natal...

Is it ground-breaking? Yes.

Will its influence change the way we interact with technology in the wider world? Very likely.

Will it make Microsoft bags of money? Yes.

Will the other console players copy Natal? Definitely.

Will Xbox emerge as the dominate force in the console market?... Let’s wait and see.
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